AFTER THE HIATUS: RESTORING BALANCE IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

As global attention drifted toward Europe and the Middle East, China quietly deepened its reach in the Indo-Pacific-now India and its partners must reclaim both presence and purpose

- LT GEN SYED ATA HASNAIN (RETD)

FOR almost two years, the IndoPacific seemed to drift off the front pages of geopolitics. The US's attention was consumed by wars in Europe and instability in the Middle East. The headlines spoke of Ukraine, Gaza, and energy crises, not of the South China Sea or the Indian Ocean. Yet this pause in attention did not mean the competition was over. It merely meant that while the world was distracted, Beijing was quietly at work-consolidating presence, deepening dependencies, and shaping norms that make its future dominance seem inevitable. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was intended to facilitate contestation of influence in the Indo-Pacific, but other events intervened.

The strategic lull has consequences.

China used this period to strengthen its position through what might be called the art of incremental advantage'. Ports, infrastructure projects, and logistics agreements have given it a wider footprint across the Indian Ocean-not in the overt form of military bases, but as dual-use platforms offering flexibility for future use. Kyaukpyu in Myanmar and Ream in Cambodia, for example, began as commercial projects and evolved into virtual dual-use footholds. This is all capability under development. The lesson is clear; in the Indo-Pacific, neglect is not neutrality.

It only creates an opportunity for China.

The US, despite its still formidable naval presence, has struggled to sustain the energy it once invested in the 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' (FOIP) concept.

The Donald Trump administration's second term has been more transactional, with foreign policy viewed through the prism of immediate deals, crisis management, and perhaps the Nobel ambition. Europe's anxieties, the Middle East's fires, and domestic priorities have meant that the US bandwidth has been thinly spread. The Indo-Pacific strategy now works in fits and starts, but the theatre often drifts into diplomatic low tide.