PM's support will falter if he keeps being subservient

SOMETIMES politicians and countries unexpectedly face big choices which will determine their future for a long time. The Brexit vote is probably a bad example, because everyone had spent time preparing for that. Possibly the settlement in Northern Ireland of 1998, often known as the Good Friday Talks which ended most of the violence in Northern Ireland, is a better one.

- David Taylor-Gooby

Politicians had not expected this, but Mo Mowlam and Tony Blair rose to the occasion and pulled it off. Tony Blair famously said he “felt the hand of destiny on my shoulder.” The second part of that quotation is less often stated “and the hand of the DUP in my pocket”. But he managed it, which is the main thing.

A another big challenge now faces us, which none of our politicians anticipated at the last election, and we need to see how our politicians rise to it.

We have a president in America who is using trade as a weapon. He expects others to flatter and bow and scrape to him in order to secure trade advantages. Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves studiously avoid criticising him openly in order to gain some benefits, although his past record of unreliable and unpredictable behaviour means anything which is agreed might not be secure. Mark Carney's popularity in Cana-da skyrocketed when he stood up to Donald Trump's remarks about Canada becoming America's “51st state”. My feeling, reinforced by what most people I encounter say, is that Keir’s support will decline if he continues what appears to be subservient behaviour.

Many people of my age will be familiar with George Orwell's novel 1984. Orwell envisaged the world split into three blocs, Eurasia, Oceania and East Asia. These states were permanently at war, which enabled their rulers to maintain authoritarian power.