Barometer confirms window for political settlement

Once again, Sri Lanka is at a crossroads. After decades of missed opportunities and delayed reforms, the conditions are there for a lasting political resolution of the ethnic conflict. The NPP government has the chance to resolve the country’s longest and most divisive conflict through Sri Lankan institutions, on its own terms. The government holds a two-thirds majority in parliament that allows it to amend the constitution and introduce the reforms that past governments promised but failed to deliver. It came to power on the back of a popular demand for system change, and the public expectation that followed that election was not for minor adjustments but for a deep restructuring of the state. The opposition is neither strong nor dominated by the racist and extremist voices that in the past sabotaged every attempt at reconciliation.

- BY JEHAN PERERA

The danger is that, as Shakespeare pointed out, time does not wait. Internationally, the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) has provided it space to resolve issues domestically. The latest resolution on Sri Lanka gives the country two more years to fulfil its commitments to accountability, truth-seeking, and reparations. The resolution explicitly acknowledges that national mechanisms can address these issues, deemphasising the need for an international process. It is a kind of diplomatic reprieve that the world is willing to let Sri Lanka find its own way but also the right way. On the other hand, if nothing tangible happens within the next two years, the international mood could shift sharply. The next UNHRC resolution may be stronger and demand direct intervention or international mechanisms once again to deal with internal matters.

The recently released Sri Lanka Barometer 2025, a project sponsored by the European Union and the German government (wwwsrilankabarometer.lk), adds weight to the need for urgency. Conducted countrywide, it offers an empirically grounded picture of reconciliation in this time of political transition. Its findings show both danger and possibility According to the survey findings, political trust is lowest in the Northern and Eastern provinces compared with the other seven provinces. It showed that political trust has risen nationally from 5.9 (2023) to 6.9 (2025), the highest since 2020. However, trust declined in both the Northern and Eastern provinces, falling to 6.5 and 6.2 respectively in 2025 down from 6.9 and 6.5 in 2023. Respondents in the north and east reported persistent feelings of marginalisation and unfulfilled justice. Many expressed the view that promises made by successive governments have not been translated into action, and that the lack of provincial council elections has left them without a political voice.

Positive Findings