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Starmer’s exit is a matter of ‘when, not if’, warns expert

The Independent

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May 05, 2026

Pollster John Curtice says Labour face local elections collapse

- MILLIE COOKE POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT

Starmer’s exit is a matter of ‘when, not if’, warns expert

It is a question of “when, not if” Sir Keir Starmer resigns as prime minister, Britain’s leading pollster has warned, as the It is a question of “when, not if” Sir Keir Starmer resigns as prime minister, Britain’s leading pollster has warned, as the Labour Party braces itself for a devastating set of results at the local elections on Thursday.

While Professor Sir John Curtice said the prime minister may cling on in the wake of the results because there is no clear successor to take over, he argued that the likelihood of Sir Keir leading Labour to the next general election ‐is very low indeed‐.

It came as a devastating new assessment from polling expert Robert Hayward warned that Labour faces the ‐drastic‐ loss of more than 75 per cent of the council seats it is defending across England.

Lord Hayward predicted that Labour will lose 1,850 seats, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party will be the biggest winners, gaining 1,550 seats, and the Greens will pick up 500.

imageThe elections on Thursday are expected to be a moment of severe peril for the PM, who has faced a growing number of calls to resign over his handling of the Peter Mandelson scandal.

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