Reform has already won the local elections, says Curtice

Polling guru claims Farage’s party has ‘murdered the Tories’

- ARCHIE MITCHELL

Fewer people than ever are prepared to vote Tory or Labour as Reform look set to claim hundreds of seats at this week’s local elections, polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has said.

Speaking exclusively to The Independent, Prof Curtice said less than half of voters are telling pollsters they will vote for one of the two main parties, in a historic shift in voting patterns.

He said: “Fewer than half of the people who tell pollsters how they are going to vote say they are going to vote either Conservative or Labour. It has never been quite that low before.”

The big winner from the shift in voter intentions is Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which Prof Curtice described as having “already won” next week’s elections before a single seat is declared. The professor said that while Reform, along with its predecessor parties Ukip and the Brexit Party, has previously eaten into the Tory vote, it is now taking thousands of Labour votes as well.

He also predicted that the Liberal Democrats will do well in places including Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire, due to Reform having “murdered the Tories”, enabling Sir Ed Davey’s party to slip through.