Only cup glory can save United's season of delusion

If winning the FA Cup could ease Manchester United’s plight, they may reflect that it helped get them into this mess. FA Cup glory at Wembley famously transformed one United manager’s reign; in a different way, it altered that of another.

- RICHARD JOLLY

For Sir Alex Ferguson, a first trophy in 1990 was the start of a path that led to 13 league titles, two Champions Leagues and a status as the most successful manager in the history of English football. For Erik ten Hag in 2024, it brought a reprieve. A man who many expected to be sacked was instead awarded a new contract.

And then sacked four months after that. If United’s next fortnight goes badly, their season will officially be a write-off; it will rank as a disaster, perhaps their worst campaign since relegation in 1974. For Ruben Amorim, parachuted in when Ten Hag was dismissed, the mitigating factors include the timing of his arrival. The Portuguese would have been in a better position to succeed if he had taken over in the summer.

Now Fulham and Real Sociedad separate his first few months at Old Trafford from the bracket of failure. Opta’s supercomputer gives United just a 5.1 per cent chance of finishing in the top 10 of the Premier League – compared to a 61.1 per cent probability they will end up 14th, 15th or 16th – so the FA Cup is United’s only route back into the Europa League; that competition, in turn, is their only corridor into the Champions League. When United fired Ten Hag in September, they believed they could still return to the European elite via a top-four finish. Like much else at Old Trafford, it looks horribly deluded.