'Like many towns, Runcorn feels like it's a bit forgotten'

Disillusionment and a resurgent Reform UK threaten Labour safe seat, as Millie Cooke and Harriette Boucher meet voters

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Sir Keir Starmer’s first nine months in office have been far from easy. From backlash over sweeping cuts to benefits, mounting global instability and an impending trade war with the US, the prime minister has faced a number of challenges since he won the keys to 10 Downing Street.

But 200 miles from Westminster, Runcorn and Helsby is where the prime minister faces his next major test. A safe Labour seat in an area which has been held by the party for more than 40 years, the optics of a loss in the upcoming by-election would be disastrous for the government, not least because Reform UK is most likely to snatch the seat.

By-elections are typically characterised by low voter turnout and an uptick in tactical voting, and are notoriously difficult to predict. But current local polling puts Nigel Farage’s party neckand-neck with Labour. “I don’t agree with everything Reform says, but it’s all about having a third option really. The Tories don’t know what they’re doing. Labour have now proven they don’t,” one voter in his twenties tells The Independent.

But the majority secured by Labour in July shouldn’t be underestimated. Mike Amesbury, who resigned after he was convicted of assault for punching a constituent, won by 15,000 votes after securing the backing of 52 per cent of the electorate. In second place, with 7,662 votes and just 18.1 per cent of the vote, was Reform UK.

By-elections are traditionally fought on local issues such as roads, bins and leisure centres. But Labour’s more controversial economic policies have brought the impact of national politics to the forefront of people’s minds in Runcorn.