Is Britain going to rejoin the European Union one day?

Five years ago, at 11pm on 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom ceased to be a member of the European Union a club/superstate according to taste) of which it had become a full member on 1 January 1973.

- SEAN O'GRADY

Of course, Brexit didn’t finally get “done”, in the sense of agreeing a new trade treaty, until some time later – memorably on Christmas Eve 2020. (The trade and cooperation agreement came into force in a formal sense on 1 May 2021, after being approved by the European parliament and adopted by the European Council.)

Nonetheless, for Brexiteers, 31 January stands beside 23 June, EU referendum day in 2016, as Britain’s “Independence Day”. It is fair to say that the enthusiasm isn’t universally shared, and the celebrations for such landmark anniversaries tend to be muted...

Who’s having a party?

Nigel Farage, who shares prime responsibility with Boris Johnson for the historic shift, needs little excuse to drink a toast to his pet project 365 days a year, but there will be no official events to mark the occasion. Indeed, even Farage once remarked that Brexit had failed, albeit because it hadn’t been implemented properly (ie an even “harder” version had not been enacted).

Despite urging from Labour’s substantial body of proEuropeans, the Treasury has declined to publish an assessment of the impact on the UK economy, though independent bodies have done so. The consensus among economists remains that the Brexit project has done more harm than good to the UK’s economy – causing a contraction in trade and investment and a long-term hit of about 4 per cent of GDP (compared with what it would have been had the UK stayed in).