How much should we really be spending on defence?

Pressure, domestic and external, is growing on the government to increase defence spending markedly.

- SEAN O'GRADY

On Monday, the secretary general of Nato, Mark Rutte, called for member states to push their target beyond the 2 per cent of GDP set back in 2006, in the light of far greater international challenges. Donald Trump, possibly as a bargaining tactic, has called for a commitment to spend 5 per cent on defence (more than anyone spends now – and it’s actually currently below 4 per cent in the US).

There is obviously no shortage of real and potential trouble facing the Atlantic Alliance – Russian aggressions in Ukraine and Georgia; instability across the Middle East; and an increasingly assertive China. The most immediate threat is from Russian “grey zone” action by merchant vessels acting on behalf of Kremlin interests – notably tearing up vital communication cables in the Baltic. Can we find the money to defend ourselves?

What’s the government’s policy?

Very simply put, it is to increase defence expenditure to 2.5 per cent of national income. This is described as “iron clad”, presumably like an original Dreadnought. However, unlike those Edwardian steam-powered sea monsters powering over the horizon, it is not obvious how and when this commitment will be achieved; no date has ever been set.

The Conservative opposition has raised this failure in the Commons, but to little effect. The most ministers will offer is that the “path” to the 2.5 per cent target being met will be published, like the overall public spending review, “in the spring”.

When exactly is that?