How Labour can pull out of its electoral death spiral

The result of the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly was a triumph for Plaid Cymru, pointing towards the nationalists taking over the government of Wales for the first time at next year's elections.

- JOHN RENTOUL

And it was a disappointment for Nigel Farage. His party has a lot of leftover balloons that were ready for the celebration of a Reform victory - the party increased its vote hugely but still fell some way short.

The result looks bad for Labour, and indeed the party did even worse than the only opinion poll in the constituency suggested. The Survation poll put Labour on 12 per cent of the vote but, on the day, Richard Tunnicliffe, the Labour candidate, won 11 per cent.

Yet there may be some hope for Keir Starmer if his party can learn the right three lessons.

Firstly, the idea that there is a Labour core vote that will turn out for the party, come what may, needs to be downgraded. That should focus minds. The party might have thought that it could rely on a proportion of voters in formerly safe seats to remain loyal. But in this case, Labour’s vote fell off to such a degree that it does not provide much of a base for next year’s all-Wales elections for a new Senedd, let alone for the next UK-wide general election.