Europe's extremists will be more emboldened than ever

It took quite some time for the mood to darken, even though the prospect of a victory for Donald Trump had already become clear.

- JOHN KAMPFNER

Overnight on Tuesday, the great and the good in Berlin had gathered for an event organised by the American Academy and Aspen Institute to watch the election.

In one of several presentations, pollsters from YouGov revealed the extent to which European voters had wanted Kamala Harris to win (the exception being Giorgia Meloni’s Italy). But it also showed that they had expected her to win, by an equally large margin. Based on what exactly? Hope springs eternal. The liberal disease. The European disease.

If anything good is to emanate from the return of Trump, it will be the shattering of European illusions. His decisive victory this time, including in vote share, removes any lingering doubt about the resilience of the global populist movement that he leads. It cannot be put down to a fluke, threats, media manipulation or Vladimir Putin – even if they all played a role at the margins.

And the effect on the political mainstream across Europe will be seismic.

Wherever you look, parties of the centre-left to centre-right are floundering. Mired in a series of crisis meetings, Germany’s bickering three-party coalition could collapse in the coming days. France is looking over its shoulder at Marine Le Pen, whose prospects for the next presidential elections are stronger than ever.

Spain’s Pedro Sanchez, struggling in a precarious administration, is furiously blamed for the terrible floods. Unlike his counterparts, Keir Starmer is under no such immediate threat but the mood in the UK can hardly be described as cheerful.