Political predictions often wide of mark

POLITICAL journalists love hyperbole.

- PHILIP BOWERN

I should know, I've indulged in it myself from time to time. But sometimes it's better to rein in the dramatic predictions after an election rather than fall prey to rash claims when there is every chance they will turn out to be far less groundbreaking when viewed from a sensible distance.

So while Nigel Farage's Reform UK did indeed pull off a remarkable victory last Thursday at council and mayoral elections and added a fifth MP to its tally at Westminster, beware those who now foresee a sea change in British politics, with Prime Minister Farage in Downing Street by 2029.

That was the breathless conclusion of many commentators reviewing a truly extraordinary set of election results last Friday and watching, open-mouthed, as Reform took the biggest share of the vote in local elections from a standing start.

Farage, not backward in coming forward in predicting his own success, has already suggested he's on track to be Prime Minister in a few short years. These elections appear to cement his claims and have persuaded others he's on course to make what looked like boasting become a reality.

It's true that extrapolating the future from one set of election results is tempting. What other ways do we have of trying to discern the future? And real votes in a real election are much more convincing than opinion polls.