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Starmer Plays Down Tax Rise Forecasts After Prediction of £51bn Shortfall
The Guardian
|August 07, 2025
Keir Starmer sought to play down warnings that the government will be forced to raise taxes this autumn and said some of the figures being circulated "are not ones I recognise".
The prime minister was responding yesterday to forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which projected a shortfall of up to £51bn in the public finances, given a number of factors had knocked the chancellor's plans to stay within Whitehall spending limits, including higher debt interest payments and U-turns on welfare spending cuts.
NIESR said "moderate but sustained" tax rises would be needed in the autumn budget for Rachel Reeves to overcome a deficit of £41.2bn and then restore a near £10bn buffer in the current budget, forcing the Treasury to raise more than £51bn from taxes, secure extra borrowing or use severe cost-cutting measures.
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