How Francis's appointments of cardinals will shape his succession

Conservative and progressives will intensify efforts to shape the future of the Roman Catholic Church in the coming days as 135 cardinals prepare to be sequestered in the Sistine Chapel to choose a successor to Pope Francis.

- Harriet Sherwood

The group of cardinals who will vote for the next leader of about 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide are less predictable than ever because many have no experience of a papal conclave. A much wider geographic spread of cardinals adds to the uncertainty.

Eight in 10 of those eligible to vote in the conclave were appointed by Pope Francis in the past 12 years. Twenty became cardinals only in December. Many had never met each other before heading to Rome after the pope's death last Monday.

The papal conclave is expected to begin formal deliberations next week. But discreet, ad hoc discussions and lobbying in the Vatican's corridors, dining rooms and gardens have gathered pace over recent days.

"In fact, conversations have probably been going on for some time, certainly since the start of this year, because the trajectory of Pope Francis's health has been clear," said Miles Pattenden, a historian of the Catholic Church at Oxford University.

More than 20 cardinals have been identified as papabile - candidates for the papacy - by Vatican observers. However, few frontrunners at the start of the process make it through successive rounds of voting. In 2013, Jorge Mario Bergoglio was not considered a papabile, but by the end of the conclave he was Pope Francis.