Fertility rates at record lows after falling again

The fertility rate for England and Wales has fallen to a record low, figures show, while Scotland had the lowest number of births and lowest birth rate since records began.

- Rachel Hall Severin Carrell

The total fertility rate across England and Wales - meaning the average number of live children women can expect to have across their childbearing life - stood at 1.41 in 2024, down from 1.42 in 2023, the lowest since comparable data was first collected in 1938, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is despite a 0.6% increase in live births in England and Wales last year, with a 14% rise in the number of babies born to fathers over 60, according to figures published last month.

The disparity is down to the fact that the adult population rose in 2024, which outweighed the increase in births. Since 1938, an increase in births at the same time as a decrease in the fertility rate has been observed only six times, with four of those occurring since 2011.

For a country's population to remain stable over time - discounting any impact from migration - the total fertility rate needs to be about 2.1.

Greg Ceely, the head of population health monitoring at the Office for National Statistics, said: "Fertility rates in England and Wales have been in overall decline since 2010. The total number of births increased last year, for the first time since 2021, but this was offset by population growth. As a result, fertility rates fell overall, and are now at the lowest rates on record."