BP suggests net zero will not be met as it raises oil targets

BP has raised its forecasts for oil and gas demand, suggesting the global net zero target for 2050 will not be met and highlighting a slowdown in the transition to clean energy.

- Lauren Almeida

BP's annual outlook report has estimated that oil use is on track to hit 83m barrels a day in 2050, a rise of 8% compared with its previous estimate of 77m barrels a day.

The current trajectory of the energy transition means natural gas demand could hit 4,806 cubic metres a year in 2050, BP said, up 1.6% from its previous estimate of 4,729 cubic metres.

To meet global net zero targets by 2050 the fall in oil demand would have to occur sooner, and with greater intensity, dropping to about 85m barrels a day by 2035 and about 35m barrels by 2050, BP said.

The world currently consumes about 100m barrels a day of oil. BP said it expects oil demand to peak at 103m barrels a day in 2030, five years later than previously forecast.

Spencer Dale, the BP's chief economist, said geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and increasing use of trade tariffs, had intensified demands around national energy security.