Bosses expect sharp fall in business activity as economic gloom deepens

Firms are predicting a sharp fall in activity in the new year in the latest snapshot showing an increasingly gloomy outlook for the economy.

- Kalyeena Makortoff Pippa Crerar

The growth indicator survey from the Confederation of British Industry indicates bosses are preparing to cut down on hiring and reduce output over the next three months.

Businesses are trying to cushion the blow from Rachel Reeves' decision in her October budget to raise £25bn by increasing employer national insurance contributions.

While the chancellor has said the move was necessary to plug a "black hole" in the public finances left by her predecessors, she has conceded it might mean lower pay rises. Others have argued it will cost jobs.

The CBI said the national insurance increase had exacerbated "an already tepid demand environment".

Its poll of 899 companies between 25 November and 12 December found expectations for growth were at their weakest since November 2022, in the chaotic aftermath of Liz Truss's brief term as prime minister.

The pessimism was wide-ranging, with the service sector expecting a decline in activity and manufacturers expecting output to fall sharply in the three months to March.