Straw polls The populist challenge to Europe's institutions

The shape of three European governments could be decided by the performances of or populist, anti-establishment far-right parties in elections in the coming weeks, as the continent's fractured political landscape continues to splinter.

- Jon Henley

A parliamentary poll in Slovakia, a country of five million people, on 30 September, could return to power a proto-populist, Robert Fico, who is stridently pro-Moscow.

In Poland, which votes in October, surveys suggest that hopes of forming a majority in the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) - self-proclaimed champions of the conservative, Catholic working class - may rest on the even further right Confederation.

When Dutch voters go to the polls in November, their fragmented politics will be further disrupted by a wildly popular former Christian Democrat MP and his new anti-establishment party, as well as a group claiming to speak for angry farmers.

"These are all very, very different parties," said Catherine Fieschi, an expert on populism and the far right. "All they have in common is that they are, to varying degrees, anti-establishment."

The fact that each looked likely to play a significant role in forthcoming elections shows just how much more fragmented and, in many cases, polarised, Europe's politics had become, Fieschi said. "None of the old rules apply, and everything is fluid," she said. "There's a perfect storm brewing between a backlash against economic liberalism, and a backlash against the green agenda. Disappointed voters are willing to 'try something new'."

As new data shows a record almost one in three Europeans voted anti-establishment last year, and with coalitions including, or backed, by far-right parties in power from Finland to Italy, this autumn's elections could prove key tests of the insurgent mood, with Europe-wide consequences.

Slovakia's pro-western government has shown staunch support for Ukraine. But despite corruption allegations, Fico's Smer-SD-nationalist, socially conservative - is ahead in the polls on 21%, and has not ruled out governing with the extreme-right, anti-minorities Republic party.