Inflection point Bolsonaro faces 40 years in jail but holds out for Trump lifeline

At the height of Jair Bolsonaro's haywire presidency, Brazilian activists projected their deepest desire on to the Tower of London, where Guy Fawkes once languished after plotting to blow up parliament and assassinate the king.

- Tom Phillips

"Jail Bolsonaro," their words read. Last week, after Brazil's expresident, 69, was formally accused of masterminding a murderous conspiracy of his own - to allegedly overthrow the government and assassinate foes with bullets and poison - his critics felt that day was finally drawing near.

"I'd be extremely worried if I were in his shoes," said Cesar Calejon, the author of critical books about Bolsonaro and his political project.

"I think it's highly unlikely this process won't end with Jair Bolsonaro in jail," Calejon said, celebrating a momentous "inflection point" he believed would seal Bolsonaro's demise.

Bolsonaro's political future looked bleak even before last week's accusations, which the ex-president denies. In 2023, one year after he lost power to his leftwing rival Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro was banned from seeking office for eight years for peddling disinformation about Brazil's electronic voting system. That decision scuppered Bolsonaro's plans for a Donald Trump-like revival in the 2026 presidential election, and has already sparked a war of succession between rightwing pretenders.