High stakes

Trump or Harris? The coming US presidential election is on a knifeedge. And given the fragile global picture of conflicts and alliances, the consequences for the world have arguably never been greater

- Andrew Roth

WHEN AMERICANS CHOOSE between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on 5 November, the decision will mark one of the most consequential elections for US foreign policy in generations that could ripple out into conflicts and redraw alliances around the world. With the candidates deadlocked in the final polls before election day, just tens of thousands of voters could decide whether world leaders face a US centrist in the vein of Joe Biden or a second term of office for one of the most disruptive American politicians of the last century.

The election comes at a moment when foreign leaders have appealed for American leadership and diplomacy, as Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon risk spiralling into a full-scale regional conflict with Iran, Russia's invasion of Ukraine faces further potential escalation with reports of North Korean troops sent to the frontlines, a civil war in Sudan raging for a second year, and warnings of growing trade and military competition between the US and China.

Trump's brand of America First politics has already sown instability among both partners and adversaries; Nato countries say that never before has the US been seen as the "unpredictable ally", a country where instability around elections is the norm and the alliance's long-term plans must be "Trump-proofed".

European diplomats in Washington have expressed dismay with the Biden administration's cautious foreign policy while steeling themselves for a Trump victory and the instability that would inject into world politics.

"I can't say for sure whether [Trump] would seek a deal with [Vladimir] Putin on day one or whether he would drop a nuclear bomb on Moscow," one European ambassador said. "The truth is that it's a black box and that anyone who tells you that they know what's going on inside [his] administration is lying."