Heroes or villains?

States with low dependence on fossil fuels are best placed to lead the green transition, but some are being criticised for ‘hypocrisy’ as new gas and oil projects surge. These are the other petrostates

- Oliver Milman and Nina Lakhani

A surge in new oil and gas exploration in 2024 threatens to unleash nearly 12bn tonnes of planetheating emissions, with the world's wealthiest countries - such as the US and the UK - leading a stampede of fossil fuel expansion in spite of their climate commitments, new data shared exclusively with the Guardian reveals.

The new oil- and gas-field licences forecast to be awarded across the world this year are on track to generate the highest level of emissions since those issued in 2018, as heatwaves, wildfires, drought and floods cause death and destruction globally, according to analysis of industry data by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

The 11.9bn tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions resulting over their lifetime from all current and upcoming oil and gas fields forecast to be licensed by the end of 2024 would be greater than the past four years combined - and roughly the same as China's annual carbon pollution. The projection includes licences awarded as of June 2024, as well as the oil and gas blocks open for bidding, under evaluation or planned.

Meanwhile, fossil fuel firms are ploughing more money into new sites than at any time since the 2015 Paris climate deal, when the world's governments agreed to take steps to cut emissions and curb global heating.

The world's wealthiest countries are economically best placed - and obliged under the Paris accords - to lead the transition away from fossil fuels. But these high-capacity countries with a low economic dependence on fossil fuels are spearheading the latest drilling frenzy, handing out 825 new licences in 2023, the largest number since records began.