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US overmatched by China on Taiwan
The Free Press Journal
|December 12, 2025
SECRET PENTAGON REPORT
A top-secret Pentagon assessment has warned that the United States would likely suffer a major defeat if it attempted to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, with simulations showing Beijing could destroy American fighter jets, warships and satellite networks before they could be effectively deployed.
The highly classified document, known as the “Overmatch Brief” and prepared by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, was recently delivered to senior White House officials. It concludes that China's rapidly maturing military arsenal now puts US forces at a significant disadvantage in the region. The report, cited by the New York Times, Independent, and Telegraph(UK), found that Beijing has built the capacity to neutralise critical American assets at the start of a conflict.
An official present when a senior Biden national security aide saw the brief in 2021 said the official “turned pale” after realising that “every trick we had up our sleeve, the Chinese had redundancy after redundancy”.
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