Three to the tango: The fast shifting Indo-Pacific balance

The ability of the Indian navy, amplified by the Quad alliance, could be a major additional worry for Beijing's defence think tanks

- JAYANTA ROY CHOWDHURY

The Indo-Pacific strategic balance seems to be shifting forms with every tidal wave that the two oceans throw at our shores.

The US, which has always been chary of India's BRICS dalliance with China and Russia, has already publicly punished India by slapping an unprecedented 50 per cent tariff on its exports for buying huge stocks of Russian oil, even as US President Donald Trump was trying to get Moscow and Kyiv to sign a peace deal.

Consequently, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a conclave with Chinese Supremo Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin at Tianjin two months ago, it seemed to signal a shift in the IndoPacific power balance where hitherto India was ranged alongside the US, Japan, and Australia to defend the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

Tianjin seemed to signal the fraying of the "coalition of democracies", acting in concert against China's "imperial" ambitions, and a coming together of the two Asian powers, even if with a wary eye on each other.

However, the inking of another 10-year defence pact last week, which deepens India's integration with the US, seems to bring the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), a US-led four-nation initiative which, though apparently a grouping of like-minded states wishing to police the Indo-Pacific oceanic commons, is in reality a construct to check China, back to even keel.

This defence deal was sweetened by Washington for New Delhi by giving Indian firms and ships working in Iran's Chabahar port an extended exemption from the US sanctions against Tehran. The Chabahar port being built by India is vital as a route to Afghanistan and Central Asia, which bypasses troublesome Pakistan.