Eco survey: Devil is in the details

India’s Economic Survey 2025-26 laid before Parliament yesterday, while projecting a GDP growth of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent in FY27, keeping India among the fastest-growing major economies, also came with caveats—geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, rising protectionism, and rapid technological change that may upset India’s growth story by reshaping how capital moves and how supply chains function.

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For India, this means weaker external demand and unpredictable investment flows, even if domestic fundamentals remain strong. Volatility alone, the survey warns, could put downward pressure on the rupee. One scenario looms particularly large: a low-probability but high-impact artificial intelligence shock—an AI-driven disruption severe enough to rival or surpass the 2008 financial crisis. The concern is not simply automation in factories, but automation of cognitive work, such as coding, data analysis, customer support, and back-office functions, which, for India’s massive IT and BPO sector, could translate into significant white-collar job losses unless reskilling and adaptation happen at scale. Other external risks are quieter but persistent—Trumpism means tighter immigration policies in advanced economies—w