Why chocolate isn't getting cheaper' Cocoa prices cool, but your bar stays premium

Cocoa prices have been on a rollercoaster: a historic surge driven by supply stress in West Africa, followed by a sharp cooling from peaks.

- TDG NETWORK

Yet at the shop shelf, many consumers are still staring at premium-ish MRPs, smaller packs, and "new recipes" that read like compromise. The frustration is real—and the economics are boringly predictable.First, commodity prices do not flow instantly into retail. Large chocolate makers typically buy cocoa through forward contracts and hedges, and they carry inventory across months. When futures spike, retail often rises with a lag; when futures fall, retail usually stays sticky because firms are still working through higher-cost contracts, and because other costs (energy, packaging, logistics, compliance) don't fall in sync. The Financial Times has reported exactly this mismatch: cocoa can correct sharply while consumer prices remain elevated for