Syria: Transition is difficult and instability across the region cannot be discounted

After a decade of warfare, the conflict Syria had settled into a violent, protracted stalemate and the country was in a humanitarian crisis: with an estimated 90 percent of Syrians living below the poverty line, and 60 percent being food insecure.

- MAJ GEN JAGATBIR SINGH, VSM (RETD)

INTRODUCTION

Millions of Syrians had been displaced, with about 5.5 million in neighboring countries while most of those involved in the initial anti-Assad protests were either dead, in jail or in exile. But, in spite of all this, the feeling was that President Basher Al Assad was there to stay.

For more than half a century, the Assad dynasty appeared to have an impregnable hold over Syria. Relying on a formidable security apparatus, repressive use of force, and powerful allies like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. It had withstood multiple uprisings, and the regime had lost control of parts of the country in the civil war. But in recent years, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose government had been sanctioned and sidelined from regional and international forums since 2011, had regained some of his standing, as the Arab League reinstated Syria and there was talk of sanctions relief.

Yet all that changed in a matter of days with a rare momentum of events. It is hard to overstate how incredible the collapse has been, given the history of the war in Syria. The stunning collapse of the 53-year Al-Assad family rule has been described as a historic moment nearly 14 years after Syrians rose in peaceful protests against a government that met them with violence. The situation in Syria has now dramatically shifted, radically altering the prevailing status quo.

THE CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS

On 08 December, the Islamist rebels of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Syrian Liberation Group, or HTS took control of Damascus while Russia announced that Assad had taken refuge in Moscow. On 09 December, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani met with Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali to "coordinate the transfer of power". The entire affair had taken less than two weeks, with little bloodshed.