Red Sea tensions risk significantly higher inflation, OECD warns

Elevated shipping costs as a result of ongoing tensions in the Red Sea could impede the global fight against inflation, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said Monday.

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The Paris-based group estimates that the recent 100%  rise in seaborne freight rates could increase import price inflation across its 38 member countries by nearly 5 percentage points if they persist.

That could add 0.4 percentage points to overall price rises after a year, the OECD said in its latest economic outlook.

In late 2023, major shipping firms began diverting their vessels away from Egypt’s Suez Canal, the quickest trade route between Europe and Asia, due to a spate of attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen. Tensions remain high, with the navies of countries including the United States involved in the conflict.

Ships are taking the longer Cape of Good Hope route around the southern coast of Africa, which increases journey times by between 30% and 50%, taking capacity out of the global market.

However, the OECD also notes that the shipping industry had excess capacity last year, a result of new container ships being ordered, which should moderate cost pressures.