Morgan Stanley projects 11% CAGR earnings growth for Reliance FY25-28

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is expected to post an 11 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings between FY25 and FY28, supported by strong performance across its key businesses, according to a latest research report byMorgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley said the growth will be driven by three key factors, improved oil-to-chemicals (02C) margins supported by lower feedstock prices and a tightening refining cycle, strong traction in consumer brands boosting retail, and expected tariff hikes in telecom.It stated «We expect RIL to see II per cent earnings CAGR over F25-28e»In its base case, Morgan Stanleyhas valued RIL's different business

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segments as follows, Petrochemicals and Refining at 8x and 75x FY27 EV/EBITDA, respectively, in line with global peers; Retail at 32x FY27 EV/EBITDA; Domestic exploration and production (E&P) at 5x; and Telecomat 13x FY27 EV/EBITDA The brokerage has also valued RIL»s new energy investments at an enterprise value of USD 25 billion-The base case assumptions include a core gross refining margin (GRM) of USD 11.2 per barrel in FY27, petrochemical EBITDA margins at USD 206 per ton, and annual investments of around USD 14 billion.Telecomaverage revenue per user (ARPU) is projected to reach