SA's green future uncertain as emissions targets scaled back

SOUTH Africa has scaled back its ambitions to cut down on the greenhouse emissions that come from burning fossil fuels and which cause global warming.

- ROULA INGLESI-LOTZ AND JESSIKA BOHLMANN

The government’s new 2030-2035 pledge to protect the climate only commits to reducing the 2025-2030 target of 350-420 metric tons of carbon dioxide that can be emitted, to 320-380 metric tons to be emitted between 2030 and 2035.

Scientists from the Presidential Climate Commission, the body advising the government on climate policy, have argued that the country should go further. In their analysis, South Africa could credibly aim to reduce its carbon emissions by around 25%-30% more between 2030 and 2035.

The Presidential Climate Commission’s targets were designed to enable the country to reach net zero by around 2050 or 2055.

Net zero is the point at which greenhouse gases emitted by humans are at such a low level that nature is able to remove them.

But currently, just over 74% of South Africa’s electricity still comes from burning coal.

As a high-emissions country, a 10% reduction in the greenhouse gases that are pumped into the atmosphere won't be enough to allow South Africa to reach net zero by 2050.

There are drawbacks to not setting ambitious targets now.

From our point of view as energy economists, we argue here that how ambitious or cautious the country is today will determine whether it captures the opportunities of a just transition or faces higher costs later.

Firstly, slow cuts now will make deeper reductions more expensive later because delaying action locks in coal infrastructure, increases cumulative emissions and means steeper, costlier transitions will be needed in a shorter time to meet long-term climate goals.

Secondly, South Africa could also miss out on investment in the green transition, and on creating green jobs.

South Africa may be lowering its climate ambitions because it fears it won't get the finance it needs to move away from coal (decarbonise).

But this looks too conservative when momentum for global climate ambition is accelerating.