The looming population bust

While many people still view runaway population growth as today's most urgent global challenge, falling fertility rates are the real demographic time bomb.

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Nearly two-thirds of people now live in countries where fertility is below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. The UN expects the world's population to peak in the 2080s, with some scholars arguing that the turning point may arrive even sooner.

The consequences of this shift are already visible. As the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's (EBDR's) latest Transition Report shows, the median age in advanced economies has risen from 29 in 1950 to 41 in 2023. The trend is even more pronounced in Central and Eastern Europe: the median age in Croatia and Bulgaria now stands at 45 and 44, respectively, while in Poland it has reached 42. In Nigeria, by contrast, the median age is just 18.

What sets Central and Eastern European economies apart is that their demographic transitions are unfolding at income levels 3-4 times lower than was the case for advanced economies. In other words, they are growing old before they grow rich, leaving them with limited capacity to sustain growth.

Declining fertility reflects profound shifts in social norms and cultural attitudes toward family planning, as people marry later in life and, increasingly, do not marry at all. The EBRD report finds that more than three-quarters of baby boomers in the EU's eastern member states were married by their early 30s. Among millennials, that figure has fallen to roughly two-thirds.