THE INDO-GULF STORY

The India-Gulf nexus could become a new center of gravity in an increasingly multipolar world - and a template for other emerging economies seeking open-source technology, resilient trade, and broad-based prosperity without subordination

- Vivek Agarwal & Alexander George

The recent Middle East Investment Forum in Sharjah underscored the deepening economic relationship between India and the Gulf states. As US President Donald Trump's tariffs erode the competitiveness of Indian exports, Indian firms are increasingly turning to the UAE as a bridge to American markets, strengthening cross-regional ties.As a result, what was once a relationship based on the exchange of oil for labour has evolved into a partnership spanning technology, finance, and security. The Gulf and India are no longer merely trading partners; together, they are spearheading a geoeconomic realignment and redrawing the map of global trade.

The relationship between India and the Gulf has deep historical roots. For centuries, caravans and merchant ships, carrying spices and textiles, established enduring cultural and commercial ties between the two regions. Moreover, under the British Raj, much of the Gulf was administered from New Delhi. In the decades following India's independence, ties became largely transactional: oil flowed one way, labour the other, and wealth moved in both directions. Only recently have India and the Gulf states rediscovered the strategic value of their historic partnership and begun to reimagine it for the 21st century.

By the mid-2010s, the two sides' strategic priorities began to align. In 2015, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the UAE - the first such visit in 34 years - as Gulf leaders like UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched ambitious plans to diversify their economies beyond hydrocarbons.