Axis of security crisis in South Asia

Relations between Pakistan and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan are currently among the most unstable elements of South Asia’s security architecture.

- The writer is expert, Centre for International Relations, Poland

Increasing border incidents, escalating political tensions, and growing activity of extremist groups indicate that the Islamabad-Kabul conflict has transcended the framework of incidental crises and taken on the character of a chronic regional threat. The beginning of 2026 confirmed this trend, bringing further militarization of the border, continued trade blockades, and a deepening diplomatic impasse.

The consequences of the crisis extend beyond bilateral relations, affecting the interests of China, Iran, Russia, India, and Central Asian states, as well as the security of regional trade routes. Its axis is defined by the Durand Line - the border drawn in the 19th century between Afghanistan and British India, and since 1947, Pakistan. It divides ethnically Pashtun lands and has never been formally recognised by Afghan governments, thus failing to serve a stabilising function. It has become a permanent arena of political, military, and narrative rivalry, where state, tribal, and ideological interests intersect, as well as Islamabad’s strategic aspirations and the Taliban’s need to consolidate power.