Global goods trade could shrink by up to 1.5%: WTO

Alongside, Unctad said the global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025

- Rhik Kundu

Global merchandise trade is set to shrink by 0.2% in calendar year 2025, the World Trade Organization (WTO) warned on Wednesday, nearly three percentage points below its earlier forecast.

If trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump's renewed tariff push escalate, the contraction could deepen to 1.5%.

The revised outlook marks a sharp reversal from the WTO's previous projections, made in October 2024, which anticipated steady growth in line with global economic expansion.

These estimates do not yet account for potential spillovers into services trade.

On 2 April, Trump announced sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" on countries that impose higher duties on American goods.

Central to his 2024 election campaign, the policy reignited fears of a global trade war and new disruptions to supply chains.

The WTO warned on Wednesday that if sustained, such reciprocal measures could trigger serious downside risks, particularly for export-dependent and least-developed countries.