Three days of clashes show the Iran conflict is entering a dangerous new phase

President Trump warned Iran would ‘pay the price’ for not reaching a peace deal

- Jared Malsin & Dov Lieber

The U.S. and Iran are entering a risky new phase of conflict in which both sides are attempting to maintain pressure and respond to provocations without returning to all-out war, but with an ever-present danger of stumbling across each other’s red lines and triggering a dangerous escalation.

Recent days of hostilities showed how close the two foes have come to the edge even while trying to keep their military actions measured. Iran struck directly at Israel, triggering an escalatory spiral that President Trump struggled to rein in. An Iranian drone then brought down an American Apache helicopter prompting several hours of U.S. retaliatory strikes. Iranian officials tried to portray the downing as an accident, then launched missile and drone strikes on U.S. allies in the Gulf and Jordan in response to the American attacks.

The three days of fighting marked the most serious escalation in the conflict since Trump declared a ceasefire in the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran in April, ending nearly 40 days of strikes that began on Feb. 28. It followed a series of skirmishes centered on U.S. efforts to enforce its blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran’s actions to keep shipping through the Strait of Hormuz bottled up.

The military standoff around the strategic waterway—typically the transit point for much of the world’s oil and a key lifeline for Gulf Arab states—has brought U.S. military aircraft flying near Iranian drones and speedboats, creating a high risk of conflict.