HOW 'OPINION TRADING' IS WIPING OUT FORTUNES

With a stock market-like thrill, opinion trading apps have turned many young users into addicts

- Shadma Shaikh

Vikas, 24, who does not wish to reveal his full name, was looking for extra income when he discovered the Probo app through a YouTube influencer last year. A final year MBA student in Jaipur, Vikas was intrigued by the prospect of making money by predicting stock trends and outcomes of cricket matches. After starting with bets of ₹50 to ₹100 and winning, he began putting in bigger sums, believing he had cracked the system. During the 2024 IPL season, Vikas lost ₹3,000 in a cricket match. He tried to recover the money by betting more, only to lose again. Desperate, he began following Telegram groups that promised expert predictions and placed a ₹6,000 bet on MPL Opinio, speculating on cryptocurrency prices. The trade failed and his losses spiralled to nearly ₹18,000, of which he had borrowed ₹8,000 from a friend.

"That friend was also frequently using opinion trading platforms," said Vikas. "When I couldn't pay him back in time, I realized that I was in trouble." With his parents' help, Vikas repaid the loan and deleted the apps from his phone.

Opinion trading apps such as Probo, MPL Opinio, Big Cash, and Playerzpot, among others, allow users to place bets on the outcomes of real-world events, ranging from cricket matches and stock movements to political results and cryptocurrency prices. Unlike the traditional financial markets, these platforms use a binary prediction model, where users wager money on 'yes' or 'no' outcomes, making them more akin to gambling than skill-based investing.

The apps have grown exponentially in recent years, engaging over 50 million Indian users and registering over ₹50,000 crore in transaction volumes annually, with revenues projected to touch around ₹1,000 crore for 2024-25, according to consumer watchdogs and trader lobby the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT).