Economic Survey: What India should transform

This year’s survey stands out for its global risk-scenario analysis and resilience advice on reducing the structurally high cost of capital in India. It’s a creditably coherent argument

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This year’s Economic Survey has been published under the shadow of a geo-economic upheaval. Although it strikes an optimistic note on India’s economy, it offers a realistic assessment of the global risks we face.

It pegs GDP growth for 2026-27 in a range of 6.8%-7.2%, a bit less than this fiscal year’s estimated 7.4%, but robust in a high-flux context. It credits the Centre’s capex outlays and recent reforms for not just upping the economy's pace of potential growth to an annual 7% from 6.5%, but also keeping inflation benign. Macro-level stability, however, no longer lures foreign capital—the “paradox of 20235,” as the survey puts it. For an economy that runs a trade deficit, this is a problem. Especially since India has been a victim of geopolitics, as it notes, citing our weak score on Lowy Institute’s Power Gap Index as a call to action. After all, while we have fared fairly well, global turmoil could yet kick in with a lag.