THE 3-SPEED AGEING FACING INDIAN STATES

India is a young demographic. Still, by 2036, more than half the states will be ‘ageing’

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India is often described as a youthful country. Justifiably so, given that 58% of its population is below the age of 35 years and 41% is below 25 years. But stepping back from national totals into state-level data reveals the extent of demographic diversity across the country.

According to United Nations (UN) population projections, there are an estimated 167 million persons aged 60 and over in India, but they are not distributed evenly across states and regions. Some regions have a young demographic profile, while others skew towards an older-age population. The truth is, India is both young and ageing: it has the world's largest Gen Z cohort and the second-largest cohort of those aged 60 and above.

One way to make sense of this wide range of demographic profiles is to classify states by age profile. The latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) report on state finances, released in January, divides states into three categories based on the share of 60-plus persons in their population. A state is classified as 'ageing' if this share is 15% or more; 'intermediate' if this share is between 10% and 15%; and 'youthful' if it is below 10%. RBI calculations show that almost all states were in the youthful category in 2016.

By 2026, Tamil Nadu and Kerala will be ageing states, with 15.8% and 18.7% of their population, respectively, in the 60-plus category. The real change comes after that. In another decade, by 2036, more than half of India's states will be ageing, and the rest will be intermediate, with no states in the youthful category. In the two decades between 2016 and 2036, the shift from a young nation to ageing country will be well underway, and that has important economic and social implications.

Data shows a clear north-south divide in the pace of ageing. All the five southern states are predicted to be in the ageing category by 2036.

POPULATION DYNAMICS