Risk of Narratives: When Everyone Saw Them Coming But Still Got It Wrong

An X post recently illustrated an age-old truth about markets and human nature perfectly.

- Dhirendra Kumar

The author said India's macroeconomic indicators are looking splendid—gross domestic product (GDP) growth exceeding estimates, inflation under control, currency stability, and room for rate cuts. The conclusion? We're entering a "virtuous cycle" of prosperity.

It's a compelling narrative, and like most compelling narratives during good times, it suffers from a familiar problem. "Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan," as the old saying goes. And nowhere is this more evident than in the way we construct stories about economic cycles and market movements.