America's export restrictions on tech enablers have a poor record

Its technology curbs aimed at France didn't work and now China's DeepSeek has revealed flaws in its latest denial regime

- BARRY EICHENGREEN

Starting in October 2022, the late lamented (by some) administration of President Joe Biden implemented restrictions on US exports of advanced semiconductors to China. A classic 'dual use' technology, these chips power Generative AI and supercomputers used in weapon systems, cyberattacks and surveillance. Equally, they can enhance the ability of companies to compete internationally—in this case, the ability of China's high-tech firms to compete with their American rivals.

In its final months, the Biden administration doubled down on these restrictions, adding high-bandwidth memory chips and chip-making tools to the list of prohibited items. Donald Trump's administration, dominated by China hawks, is poised to ramp up these measures further.

China has retaliated with export controls on rare earths and related materials used by American producers. But the more serious threat is that China will accelerate the development of its own capacity to design chips and build chip-making equipment. If China closes the technology gap faster than it otherwise would have, then US export controls will have proven ineffectual or even counter-productive.

It's hard to predict the success or failure of China's efforts. But it may be informative to look to the past, where some of the most relevant history comes from, of all places, France in the 1960s.