A new global order is emerging as Trump rolls the security dice

The US won't play its post-World War II role. What happens next will depend on others' responses

- HARSH V. PANT

In his two months in office, US President Donald Trump has given a new meaning to the term 'disruption'.

Before he took his second presidential avatar, the term was discussed mostly in hypothetical terms in seminar rooms and conference circuits. But eight weeks plus of Trump 2.0 have made disruption the operational reality for the global order. There may be no strategic coherence in Trump's daily pronouncements as he moves from one issue to the next and from one geography to another. But that does not preclude new constraints from reshaping the global reality for others.

The Russia-Ukraine war is moving towards another stage, with ceasefire talks speeding ahead in Saudi Arabia. The two sides have agreed "to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea" as well as "to develop measures for implementing... the agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine."

This in itself is a major achievement for Trump, as it is easy to start wars but incredibly difficult to end them. For the past three years, the message from Washington was in favour of escalation. Now Trump seems to have put his reputation on the line to address a festering sore at the heart of Europe's security architecture. By shocking primarily Ukraine and Europe, the Trump administration has been able to move the United States away from its open-ended commitment to war that the previous Joe Biden administration had put in place.