Our dropping crime rate is good news but it isn't the whole story

A close look at India’s latest data indicates a need to focus not just on reducing law violations but also on improved reporting

- SOUMYA KANTI GHOSH

India’s latest crime statistics offer encouraging signs of progress. According to the National Crime Records Bureau’s (NCRB) Crime in India 2024 report, the country recorded under 5.9 million cognizable crimes that year, a decline of 6% from the previous year.

The all-India crime rate fell from 448.3 per lakh population to 418.9, while crimes against women fell.

Most importantly, our estimates suggest that a 1% decline in such crime is associated with about 0.11% higher real GDP growth in the short run, with the long-run dividends even higher.

At a time when rapid urbanization and digital connectivity are transforming society, the reduction in conventional crime suggests that investments in public infrastructure, technology and policing may be beginning to yield dividends. One driver is the steady rise in public capital expenditure. Our estimates show that a 1% increase in per-capita public capital outlay is associated with a 0.36% lower crime rate.

Technology too appears to be reshaping the crime landscape. Under the Smart Cities Mission, more than 84,000 CCTV cameras have been installed across 100 cities, supported by Integrated Command and Control Centres. Interestingly, cities with higher CCTV density tend to exhibit lower growth in crime rates, suggesting that the increased probability of detection itself may deter criminal activity.