New nuclear arms race pits U.S. against both Russia and China

After a decadeslong hiatus, nuclear weapons surge back to the forefront of global politics

- Yaroslav Trofimov

Russia is developing a variety of new-generation systems aimed at American cities.

(AFP)

The new nuclear race has begun. But unlike during the Cold War, the U.S. must prepare for two peer rivals rather than one—at a time when it has lost its clear industrial and economic edge.

China, which long possessed just a small nuclear force, is catching up fast, while Russia is developing a variety of new-generation systems aimed at American cities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has already used nuclear saber-rattling to throttle American support for Ukraine. He has deployed nuclear weapons to Belarus and, in recent weeks, tested a nuclear-powered missile and a nuclear-powered submarine drone that he claims are impervious to American defenses.

While Russia and the U.S. are still abiding by some arms-control limits, such as the New Start treaty that expires in February, China, unconstrained by any commitments, is quietly but rapidly leaping ahead. According to American estimates, Beijing will reach rough parity with the U.S. in deployed nuclear warheads by the mid-2030s.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping for the first time showcased China’s nuclear triad—its land, sea and air-launched ballistic nuclear missiles—at a Beijing parade honoring the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan in September. Putin, sitting to his right atop the Gate of Heavenly Peace, took note. So did North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, sitting to his left.

The growing bond between Moscow and Beijing—onetime rivals that neared the brink of a nuclear exchange during a border conflict in 1969—has already created an unprecedented level of strategic uncertainty for the U.S. and its European and Asian allies. That wariness is compounded by doubts among Washington’s allies about President Trump ’s commitment to honor mutual-defense obligations.