As Nalco's price advantage lessens, can new capacity help?

Dazzling show Nalco's Q3FY25 consolidated profits jumped sharply as alumina business earnings got a boost on improved prices.

- Ashish Agrawal

National Aluminium Co. Ltd (Nalco) has benefited from soaring alumina prices in FY25, driving a 201% year-on-year surge in consolidated Ebitda for Q3FY25. The state-owned company achieved an average alumina realization of $641 per tonne. Plus, it also helped that alumina exports rose 11% and the use of captive coal increased. Note that Nalco's Ebitda was up 290% in Q2 and saw an average 47% growth in the previous four quarters. However, with spot prices now around $530 per tonne, the price advantage may be short-lived. Nalco's management indicated in its Q3 earnings call that Q4 realizations would remain above $600 per tonne due to prior contract bookings. But the global alumina market is expect