India Mustn't Get Distracted by the Impact of AI on Jobs

AI is marginal to our challenge of employment. We need an ear to the ground for structural reforms

- ARUN MAIRA

I seems to be in every discussion these days, whether it is about privacy, surveillance, consumer rights, health, education, climate change, jobs or incomes. On one hand, there is optimism that AI will improve the world in ways that human intelligence has not been able to. On the other is the fear that we don't know how this artificial (or non-human) intelligence will change the world.

There are two responses to uncertainty over how it will turn out. One is to predict future outcomes for a world with more AI and design policies accordingly. The other is to regulate AI beforehand, even before we agree on its impact, so that we can prevent its bad side from destroying us and get more of the good. But then, "The only thing you cannot predict is the future," someone once said. I asked ChatGPT who did. It said many people have said it through history and one cannot attribute this eternal wisdom to anyone. But why is the future unpredictable? There are two reasons.

One is that multiple forces interacting with each other in non-linear ways change the state of complex systems and produce outcomes that will not be visible until the system has changed. Social, economic, environmental and political forces will be impacted by any transformative technology, and they will, in turn, react to the technology and change its course.