Reciprocal tariffs may singe market

Indian markets could open up to 1% lower on Tuesday after the Eid holiday, suggests weekly options data, as bears are likely to return ahead of US President Donald Trump's 2 April deadline for reciprocal tariffs.

- Ram Sahgal

Trump's comments on the weekend dragged South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei down by 3-4% on Monday, while Germany's Dax and France's CAC traded 1% lower at the time of writing.

Indian stock markets are likely to feel the pain on Tuesday, said analysts. Options data as of Friday indicates a range of close to 500 points from Friday's closing level of 23,519. The key support priced in by option traders was 23,263, with the resistance at 23,737.

A decisive break below 23,263 could result in the markets testing the 23.6% retracement level of 22,982, which squares with the weekly options' significant outstanding position build-up at the 23,000 put level.

Retracement refers to the market making up some of the losses by bouncing off the lows. As it rises, it encounters resistance at crucial levels.