Major impact on 9 July unlikely but risks not off the table either

The market outlook is positive. The Reserve Bank of India projects 6.5% GDP growth this year. Venugopal Manghat, Equity CIO at HSBC Mutual Fund

- Dipti Sharma

A lot is still in flux, says Venugopal Manghat, Equity CIO at HSBC Mutual Fund, so it is too early to say that geopolitical tensions are fully behind, he said. The tariff issue remains a "major uncertainty", but he is not very concerned at this time. "My sense is that the overall outcome will likely be neutral to positive for India."

Manghat neither expects a major impact on 9 July nor believes that the risks have completely faded.

That said, markets seem to be in a consolidation phase, with sideways movement since September 2024, he noted. While declines have been followed by recoveries, new highs remain elusive, indicating a time-based consolidation. He expects returns to stay volatile.

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How do you expect India's growth story to translate into equity market returns? What's your outlook on the markets?

The market outlook is positive. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects 6.5% GDP growth this year, a solid base that could rise to 7% or more with favourable macro factors. Strong agriculture and a good monsoon will support rural demand and GDP. Inflation near 4% implies nominal GDP growth of 10.5-11%, making India one of the few large economies growing in double digits in nominal terms, and this may continue for the next few years.