Preparing for the inevitable 'Big One'

Last week’s call of the DILG for all local government units to conduct comprehensive infrastructure audits on all public and private buildings is certainly necessary to strengthen earthquake readiness.

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Recent earthquakes in Visayas and Mindanao have once again stirred anxiety among Filipinos. Many are understandably on edge, fearing the long-predicted “Big One” — a catastrophic earthquake along the West Valley Fault that could claim thousands of lives and wreak unprecedented havoc.

Seismologists remind us that it is not a matter of “if” but “when.” The 100-kilometer West Valley Fault, stretching from Bulacan through Quezon City and Metro Manila’s eastern sectors to Laguna and Cavite, last moved in 1658. And the fault “moves every 400 years on average,” experts said

Within our lifetimes, or that of the next generation, its destructive potential is expected to resurface. As often explained by the country’s foremost quake authority, Renato Solidum, the Philippines’ location in the Pacific Ring of Fire makes us inherently vulnerable to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions alike.

Previous studies show potential devastation at a staggering scale. The Metro Manila Impact Reduction Study, a joint effort by Philvolcs, MMDA, and Japan’s JICA conducted from 2002 to 2004, projected 35,000 deaths and 500 simultaneous fires across the premier metropolis.

Another study, the 2013 Greater Metro Manila Area Risk Analysis Project funded by Australia, warned that a 7.2-magnitude quake could collapse structures within 1,100 hectares, kill 37,000 people, and cause P2.4 trillion in damages.