China trade buoy saves exports from US tariffs

Despite United States (US) tariffs of 19 percent slapped on shipments to America, Philippine merchandise exports are expected to perform better this year amid market diversification, think tank Oxford Economics said.

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"We've become more optimistic about 2026 goods export receipts across emerging markets (EMs) since our major downgrade in April 2025 to reflect the liberation day tariffs," Oxford Economics senior economist Callee Davis said in a Nov. 13 report, referring to US President Donald Trump's first official announcement of higher taxes on products coming from America's trading partners.

"Across most major EMs, including China, we've revised up our nominal goods exports forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in absolute terms ... Exports are now projected to meet or exceed our pre-Trump baseline for many EMs, including Chile, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, China, and South Africa," Oxford Economics said.

The think tank explained that EMs like the Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Malaysia "have significantly reduced the share of exports destined for the US, redirecting much of that trade to China and elsewhere."