US import tariffs could cut growth

The levies could wipe out the modest gains expected this year, hitting key sectors such as vehicles, wine and citrus the hardest

- Aarti Bhana

South Africa's economy is likely to take a knock if the 30% import tariff on local goods announced by United States President Donald Trump this week kicks in on 1 August, economists have said.

South Africa is one of 14 countries that received formal communication from the US earlier this week regarding proposed tariff increases. Tunisia is the only other African country targeted.

Trump said the tariff will address what he called a trade imbalance between the US and South Africa, which he said “must move away from these long-term, and very persistent, trade deficits engendered by South Africa’s tariff, and non-tariff, policies and trade barriers”.

Trump announced punitive tariffs against several countries in April, but decided to put them on hold for three months so that countries could try to negotiate better terms.

In his latest communication to South Africa, the US leader said: “Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal. Starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge South Africa a tariff of only 30% on any and all South African products sent to the United States, separate from all sectoral tariffs.”

The South African government says the 30% tariff is based on a disputed interpretation of the balance of trade between South Africa and the US, and it will try to negotiate better terms with Washington.

“This contested interpretation forms part of the issues under consideration by the negotiating teams from South Africa and the United States. Accordingly, South Africa maintains that the 30% reciprocal tariff is not an accurate representation of available trade data,” the presidency said in a statement.

“In our interpretation of the available trade data, the average tariff on imported goods entering South Africa stands at 7.6%. Importantly, 56% of goods enter South Africa at 0% most favoured nation tariff, with 77% of US goods entering the South African market under the 0% duty.”