Trump's antics fueling Democratic enthusiasm for Proposition 50

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s anti-Trump, anti-Texas congressional redistricting gamble seems about to pay off.

- GEORGE SKELTON

ANY SIZE victory would boost Gov. Gavin Newsom's national standing.

(MARIO TAMA Getty Images)

Newsom's bet on Proposition 50 is looking like a winner, although we won't really know until the vote count is released starting election night Nov. 4.

Insiders closely watching the high-stakes campaign would be shocked if Republicans pulled an upset and defeated the Democrats’ retaliatory response to red state gerrymandering. They talk mostly about the expected size of victory, not whether it will win. The hedged consensus is that it'll be by a modest margin, not a blowout.

Any size victory would help Newsom promote himself nationally as the Democrat whom party activists anxiously seek to aggressively fight Trumpism. It could energize grassroots progressives to back him in early 2028 presidential primaries. Propositions 50's defeat, however, could be a devastating blow to Newsom's presidential aspirations. If Californians wouldn't follow him, why should other people? Private and independent polls have shown Proposition 50 being supported by a small majority of registered voters. Not enough for an early victory dance. But the opposition is nowhere close to a majority. A lot of people have been undecided. They may not even bother to vote in a special election with only one state measure on the ballot.

As of last week, the return of mail-in ballots was running about the same as in last year's presidential election at the same point very unusual.

A slightly higher percentage of Democrats were casting ballots than GOP registrants. This is particularly significant in a state where 45% of voters are Democrats and only 25% are Republicans. The GOP needs a humungous turnout to beat Democrats on almost anything.